ARCS / EXPECTED TIME OF ENDING
Taking into consideration both the average arc length and the length creep of later arcs is possible to try to predict how many arcs we have left.
Extrapolating the linear regression for future times, is possible to infer informations about the number of arcs in between now and the ending thought by Oda. All the further predictions are made by using the Short/Long Arc Length Extrapolation table, calculated by taking into account the Length Creep as it is right now in the series.
So the shortest resolution possible, taking into account the expiration date given by Oda has a 100-ish chapters long Wano (so 70 as of today), a short transitional arc in the middle, a 25-ish chapters long Short Arc (from March 2021 up to November 2021), a 100-ish chapters long Long Arc (from December 2021 to mid-2024) and a short transitional epilogue.
- In order to have a last Long Arc (Laugh Tale?) who will finish by mid-2024, taking into consideration that the last arc would be probably the longest being the latest, it should begin in between November/December 2021.
- In order to have a last Short Arc (Elbaf?) who must finish by end-2021 to accommodate for the last long arc, that arc should start by April/March 2021.
- In order to have that second to last short arc, Wano should end by March 2021. If Wano will finish in one year by now (as it is crudely predicted by the long arc length extrapolation), it’s still possible that the 5 years timeline is accurate.
Is it believable? Frankly, I don’t know. I honestly can’t see how Oda would be able to deal with both the Laugh Tale side of the EOS content (Elbaf, Roadstar, Blackbeard, Shanks, One Piece, Whitebeard Pirates/Weevil and Laugh Tale) and the World Government side of the EOS content (Mary Geoise, Ancient Weapons, Vegapunk & Co., Marines, World Government/Im-sama, Revolutionaries) without dealing with them with at least a long arc each, but Mr. Naito’s sudden change of idea make me think now that this has become slightly more likely.
What I personally would consider being a more believable ending, is the following one. In order to have a good build up for each long arc, Oda usually uses short arcs (such as he did with Zou for Wano and Punk Hazard for Dressrosa, the Reverie arc seems to be the build up for the next short arc as well), followed by long arcs, with minimum arcs sprinkled in between. Medium arcs are left for self-conclusive stories (such as Fish-Man island or Thriller Bark), so I don’t think that there are any left in the story of those. The bare bones minimum to end in a satisfactory way, in my opinion, is the following:
- End of Wano: ~ 01/03/2021
- 50 chapters (dealing with Big Mom and Kaido);
- Short Arc (e.g. Elbaf) – 01/04/2021 ~ 01/11/2021
- 25-ish chapters (dealing with Shanks, build-up to Laugh Tale);
- Minimum Arc (e.g. Lodestar? Whitebeard’s island?) – 01/11/2021 ~ 01/01/2022
- Build up to Final War: 10-ish chapters (introduction of Dragon/Revolutionaries and end game stuff, as well as Im, last Poneglyph);
- Long Arc (Laugh Tale/PK Arc) – 01/01/2022 ~ 01/09/2024
- 100-ish chapters (dealing with Black Beard);
- Short Arc – 01/09/2024~01/05/2025
- Build up to Final War: 25-ish chapters (travel to final arc, build-up to the final arc);
- Long Arc (e.g. Mary Geuse/Final War): 01/05/2025 ~ 01/05/2028
- 115-ish chapters (dealing with World Government, Marines, Admirals, Im and EOS stuff);
- Ending (e.g. Flashforward): mid-2028.
- 10 chapters (dealing with Strawhats personal epilogues);
That’s 325/350 chapters, at least 150 more (and 3+ full years) than the one needed to keep the manga short of 5 years of content from today. It may very well require less of a decade to finish, but to finish in just 5 years it seems to me impossible without picking up the pace even further or letting too much stuff on the cutting room floor…
*Theory by Scicageki
